Transparency

Methodology

Every derived metric is documented here. No black boxes. Computed scores are transparent composites of official public data.

Data Integrity Rules

No fabricated values

LocalLedger displays only values sourced from official public databases (FRED, BLS, Census, BEA, College Scorecard, USAspending). If data is unavailable, it shows "Data unavailable" - never an AI-generated, unsourced, or model-imputed number.

Every metric cites its source

Every displayed value includes: source name, source URL, dataset/series ID, geography, date, and last fetched timestamp.

Build fails on missing citations

The validation script (pnpm data:validate) exits with an error code if any data point is missing a source URL, last updated timestamp, or methodology note for computed scores.

No impossible values

NaN, Infinity, negative unemployment rates, and similar impossible values trigger a build failure.

No mock/demo strings in production

"Lorem ipsum", "placeholder", "sample data", "demo data", "fabricated", "random", "dummy" are forbidden in production data files.

Local Economy Score (0-100)

The Local Economy Score is a weighted composite of five dimensions. Each dimension is normalized to a 0-100 sub-score using the formulas below. Missing data reduces the effective weight proportionally - no dimension is fabricated, AI-generated, or model-imputed.

DimensionWeightData SourceNormalization
Labor30%FRED, BLSUnemployment (70%): 0% = 100, 15%+ = 0. LFPR (30%): 80%+ = 100, 50% = 0.
Income25%FRED, Census ACSMedian HH income relative to CO median. 2× CO median = 100, 0 = 0.
Affordability20%Census ACS, Zillow (future)Home price-to-income ratio. Ratio 2× = 100 (affordable), 10× = 0 (unaffordable).
Population Growth15%Census BureauYoY growth rate. +3%+ = 100, −2% = 0.
Fiscal10%USAspending.govFederal spending per capita. $20k+ = 100, $0 = 0.
Total100%Missing dimensions reduce effective weight proportionally. Score is always between 0 and 100.

Slowdown Risk Indicator

Disclaimer

This indicator is an educational model based on public historical data. It is not financial advice, investment advice, or a guaranteed forecast.

Score Computation

The Slowdown Risk Score (0-100) is derived from the differential between Colorado and US unemployment rates, using the latest FRED observations. Additional indicators (housing permits, consumer confidence surveys) will be incorporated as data sources are confirmed and validated.

  • • CO unemployment significantly above US (+0.5pp): +30 risk points, trend = rising
  • • CO unemployment near US (within ±0.5pp): +15 risk points, trend = stable
  • • CO unemployment significantly below US (−0.5pp): −10 risk points, trend = falling

Risk Level Thresholds

LowScore 0-33
ModerateScore 34-66
ElevatedScore 67-100

Trend Thresholds

Rising: change > +0.5% · Stable: between -0.5% and +0.5% · Falling: change < -0.5%

Housing Pressure Score (0-100)

The Housing Pressure Score measures the ratio of median home value to median household income (price-to-income ratio). Higher scores indicate more housing cost pressure.

  • • Price-to-income ratio 2× → Score 0 (very affordable)
  • • Price-to-income ratio 6× → Score 50 (moderate pressure)
  • • Price-to-income ratio 10× → Score 100 (severe pressure)

Sources: Census ACS median home value and median household income.

College ROI Value Score

College ROI metrics are simplified indicators based on public data. They should not be treated as a complete measure of educational quality, fit, or long-term outcomes.

Value Score (0-100) is computed from College Scorecard data:

  • • Median Earnings 10yr: 40% weight (normalized: $100k = 100)
  • • Graduation Rate: 30% weight (direct percentage, ×100)
  • • Net Price (inverse): 20% weight ($0 = 100, $50k = 0)
  • • Debt-to-Earnings (inverse): 10% weight

Suppressed Scorecard values reduce effective weight. All source data from College Scorecard API.

Data Sources

LocalLedger uses only official public data sources: